OIL: lying low

OIL: lying low

2020-03-27 • Updated

Prepare the stage

You cannot avoid the feeling that something is lurking in the oil market. WTI at $22 per barrel, Brent at $25, diminished fluctuation… Some will say oil is just “tired” of moving and wants to rest. In the end, the weekend is coming. But where will it go? And what’s behind the scene here?

4.png

MbS

No, that’s not a new oil company. Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and its de-facto ruler is also known as MbS. He will be saying his word on crude supply next week: 31 March is the last day of the current term on agreed oil supply quantities. His last announced plans were to increase Saudi Arabia’s exports to 12.5mln barrels per day.

Russia

Russian officials previously informed that they would be ready to increase the supply through Rosneft by 300,000mln barrels per day in response. Now, as little as spare capacity seems in comparison to that of Saudi Arabia, that is not that crucial: Russia’s main weapon is not adding new supplies but rather holding on to its current level. Tactically, Russia is in a defensive strategy with the objective to hold the market, while Saudi Arabia is on the offensive with the objective to conquer the market; European market, specifically. Tactically, the one who attacks is the one to bring more firepower.

Stores full

Saudi Arabia offers huge discounts on its crude and huge quantities. No one can counter that. But everything gains value in the context of the situation. What is the context now?

With 100mln barrels of oil pumped daily, there is 20% oversupply at this rate. Oil tanks are so full that there is nowhere to store it. In this context, factoring in demand 20mln-bpd lower than the recent levels brings to the conclusion that it doesn’t bring too much advantage to Saudi Arabia to offer something that will surely be over the top and not required in the nearest future, and even if it was, there will be no place to store it.

What will it be then?

No one really knows. Here are some of the fresh headlines though.

3.png

It looks like observers have more faith in the post-virus global economic recovery than in the oil markets’ nearest future. We will see on April 1. As some observers mentioned, $3 per barrel is not an impossible scenario now. Either way, you can make profits on that – just watch the moment.

Similar

WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot
WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot

Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...

XBRUSD: Prepares to Correct Intraday Rally
XBRUSD: Prepares to Correct Intraday Rally

Bearish Scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.34, TP2: 78.94, TP3: 78.55, and 78.00 Bullish Scenario: Buys above 78.00 (wait for a retracement to the zone) with TP: 79.34 TP2: 80.00, and TP3: 81.00

Latest news

USD Expected To Recover Some Strength
USD Expected To Recover Some Strength

In the early hours of Tuesday, the US Dollar faces challenges in maintaining its strength against major currencies, with the US Dollar Index struggling to surpass the 104.00 mark. Investors are eagerly anticipating the release of key economic data, including January Durable Goods Orders and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for February. Additionally, the economic calendar includes reports...

CAD: Price Delivery Suggests Strength
CAD: Price Delivery Suggests Strength

In the early hours of Tuesday, the US Dollar faces challenges in maintaining its strength against major currencies, with the US Dollar Index struggling to surpass the 104.00 mark. Investors are eagerly anticipating the release of key economic data, including January Durable Goods Orders and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for February. Additionally, the economic calendar includes...

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera