For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for March 7
At first, let’s consider the economic calendar. Of course, the most important event today is the European central bank rate statement at 14:45 MT time followed by the press conference at 15:30 MT. The rate hike is not expected, but the ECB president Mario Draghi may provide comments, which will affect the volatility of the EUR. It will be interesting to find out his opinion on the slowdown in the Eurozone. Let’s see if Mr. Draghi supports the euro.
Now let’s look at the charts.
At first, let’s look at the daily chart of EUR/USD. The area near the cross of the 50 and 100-day moving average at 1.1386 acted as a strong resistance which the pair could not overcome. Since the beginning of the week, the pair has been falling down amid the strong USD. If the euro continues to go down, it will face strong support at the weekly pivot at 1.1277. The next one lies at 1.1227. If bulls are strong, the pair will rise above the 1.1319 level to the next resistance at 1.1369. From the technical side, ADX shows moderate strength of bears and parabolic SAR demonstrates a downward movement for the pair.
Now let’s consider the H4. The pair is trading sideways ahead of the European central bank press conference. If the ECB is hawkish, the pair will retest the resistance at the weekly pivot at 1.1319 and go up to the next resistance at 1.1334. The next key level is placed near the 50-period SMA at 1.1351. If Mario Draghi fails to support the EUR, it will slide towards the support at 1.1288. The next support is placed at the weekly pivot at 1.1277. The next support lies at 1.1257.
Now let’s look at EUR/JPY. The pair failed to stick above the 100-day MA on Monday and fell down to the weekly pivot support at 125.82. If today’s ECB meeting is positive for the EUR, EUR/JPY will manage to rise above the weekly pivot resistance at 126.66. From the indicators’ side, Parabolic SAR shows an upward movement for the pair and ADX shows bullish pressure, but the strength is weakening.
On H4, the pair is trading in the range bound manner between the resistance at 126.52 and the support at 126.2. If the EUR is supported, the pair will break the resistance at 126.52 and rise towards the next one at 126.66. The next key level lies at 126.92. Otherwise, we may see a fall below the support at 126.2 towards the next support at 126.03. The break of this level will pull the pair lower to the weekly pivot support at 125.82.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
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