For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for November 6
As we can see from the economic calendar, there are not so many events. The currency pairs will be driven mostly by the news factor.
The main event for the US dollar for today is mid-term Congressional elections. There has been speculation that the opposite party of Democrats will likely take control of the House of Representatives. If it happens, the USD will be weak.
In other news, the employment data for New Zealand will come out at 23:45 MT time. According to experts, the employment change will increase by 0.5%. A higher-than-expected data will be good for the currency. The level of unemployment will reach 4.4%. If its actual level of an unemployment is lower, the kiwi will be supported.
Now let’s turn our attention to the charts.
At first, let’s look at the US dollar index. As we can see, the direction of the price, for now, is uncertain. If the Democrats win, the greenback will fall. In that case, watch the support at 95.7. If the Republicans win, the greenback can move up to the resistance at 96.35.
GBP/USD is mostly driven by the Brexit news. Since the beginning of the week there have been talks about reaching an agreement soon, however, an Irish border issue still triggers both sides. Positive news on the outcome can lift the cable above the resistance at 1.3105, otherwise, it can fall towards 1.2899. We will keep you updated on the situation.
As for NZD/USD, the pair was supported last days by positive news on the possible trade talks between Chinese president Xi and US president Trump. For now, the pair is testing the resistance at 100-day MA at 0.6658. If the employment data will outperform the forecasts, it can rise towards 0.6719. If the USD is strong, the pair will fall. The first support at 0.6615.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
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