Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
AUD: jobs report pushed it down
2020-05-14 • Updated
AUD has a pause on the way up as 600,000 people lost jobs. Is it a short-term correction or change of a course?
Devastating unemployment rise
"A very tough day, terribly shocking, although not unanticipated", - said Scott Morrison, the Australian Prime Minister. These days it’s really hard to surprise someone with a weak economic data. We already got used to it. However, it weighed some pressure on AUD, but it wasn’t the only one reason that pushed it down.
Powell’s negative prognosis
Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, gave a quite pessimistic outlook. He claimed that there is a high risk of the future deep downturn. Most economists and even Donald Trump discussed the positive impact of negative rates on economic activity. Nevertheless, Powell was unmoved, he rejected that possibility. This negative perspective pushed USD up and AUD down. The Australian dollar is really sensitive to all the market fluctuations.
Those reasons were enough for the market-sensitive AUD to fall, but the overall risk-averse and fears of the second coronavirus wave destroyed the poor aussie completely. AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, stock indexes such as S&P 500 and Dow Jones – all together are suffering. Things can improve only when the market will switch to the risk-on sentiment.
What does the chart tell us?
The AUD/USD had been increasing since March 23 and it almost bounced back to its pre-crisis position. The price hit the 100-day moving average twice at 0.655. If it dips down to 0.633, what is quite possible, it may go even lower to the support line at 0.627 where is the 50-day moving average. Most analysts have bearish scenarios for the aussie. However, if it gains and crosses the resistance level at 0.649, it will go further up to 0.655.
Amid uncertainty driven by geopolitical events, oil prices surged to record highs. However, a correction in oil prices is observed with a gradual improvement in the situation in the Middle East and an increase in demand. The question facing investors is whether there are prerequisites for further price growth or if everything depends on the dynamics of the political landscape. In this article, we will explore the impact of recent events on the global oil market and the prospects for developing this crucial commodity sector.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
On Friday, the gold price (XAUUSD) retreated from a recent two-week high, facing selling pressure. This decline was driven by hawkish minutes from the FOMC meeting, indicating the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates. Elevated US Treasury bond yields, supported by a "higher-for-longer" narrative, further weakened demand for gold...
Bearish Scenario: Selling below 22.65 with TP1: 22.34 (intraday) and TP2: 22.02 (swing). Bullish Scenario: Buying above 22.70 with TP1: 22.90.
Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.