Corrective Bearish Scenario: Sells below 38680 with TP1: 38560, TP2: 38500, TP3: 38432 Continuation Bullish Scenario: Buys above 38816 with TP: 39000
AUD/JPY: testing the resistance
2019-12-18 • Updated
From the very beginning of 2018, the overall direction of AUD/JPY was a decline. On the weekly chart, this downtrend is visible, with the 50-week Moving Average serving as the resistance. Since then, the price has tested that resistance two times. Now, we are observing the third time. Therefore, the question is: will it be just another such time or a start of the long-term trend change.
Recently, the price came close to the resistance level of 76.00, which is a 6-months high. On the daily chart, it did the same in November but then dropped. Now, as it is testing the 200-day Moving Average being already above the 50-day and 100-day MAs, it is likely to go into consolidation at the present level.
In fact, we are observing a collision of the 2-years downtrend and the 6-months uptrend. For this reason, whatever the outcome, climbing further up will be difficult, and the price will have to fight its way to actually break through the 200-day Moving Average and the resistance level of 76.00. If it does, we will see a new large trend emerging.
In the course of the abovementioned mid-term consolidation, the price is likely to drop to the area of 74.50. That is approximately where the local 1-week downtrend will cross the 6-months uptrend and the 200-period and 100-period MAs. If the price drops below the mentioned Moving Averages, it should be for a relatively short period of time.
The local downtrend is also confirmed by the reading of the Awesome Oscillator, which just crossed the zero-line downwards after two descending consecutive peaks.
In the short-term, the price shows signs of continuing the downward trend. In the mid-term, we are likely to see consolidation. In the long-term – we have to wait to see the overall trend being broken or continued further.
To understand the factors behind the AUD/JPY price movements, read the news and examine the fundamentals for this currency pair.
Bullish Scenario: Buy between 17515 and 17600 with TP1: 17681; TP2: 17720 intraday, and TP3: 17750 / 18000 in extension. Bearish Scenario in case of breaking the buying zone: Sell below 17500 with TP1: 17469; TP2: 17421, and TP3: 17358 in extension.
Primary Scenario: Sales below 16767 / 16838 (wait for a return to these levels) with targets at 16615.70 and 16513.72 as an extension. Alternative Scenario: Buys above 16730 with targets at 16766 and 16838 as an extension.
Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.
Last Tuesday, the Australian dollar experienced its steepest drop of the year, falling by 1.18%, following higher-than-expected US inflation figures, which boosted the US dollar. However, the Aussie has since rebounded and is now trading at a two-week high against the US dollar. Investors are...
Commerzbank's analysis suggests a brighter outlook for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the coming months despite recent downward pressure. Factors like broader U.S. Dollar strength and domestic issues have kept the NZD below last year's highs. However, robust labor markets in both New Zealand and Australia and an expected...