AUD: near-term risks

AUD: near-term risks

2020-11-26 • Updated

AUD/USD bounced off the monthly high as the risk-on sentiment faded. Australian private investments dropped more than expected, and also added pressure on the aussie. In addition, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has downgraded its near-term forecasts for the Australian dollar as they see the risk of a double-dip US recession. Indeed, the current picture is quite dire with constantly rising cases all over the world.

Besides, the AUD is positively correlated with the GBP, that’s why we should take into consideration the Brexit process as well. No good news from that side: there is only one month left to the deadline, and both sides seem to be far away from reaching a compromise.

On the other hand, the aussie is a risk-sensitive currency. When something happens in the market, it’s one of the first ones to react. If widespread vaccinations really start next month, we’ll see the rise of riskier assets, and especially, the AUD.

Forecasts from CBA

“While there are downside risks to AUD in the near term, the medium-term outlook is very positive because of China’s V-shaped economic recovery. We now forecast AUD/USD will end 2020 at 0.74 (previously 0.75) and end 2021 at 0.78 (unchanged). 

An improved outlook for the global economy is behind our slightly stronger AUD forecasts in 2022."   

Technical tips 

Actually, the performance of the AUD has been astonishing so far. On the weekly chart, we see loads more green candles than red ones, which means there are a lot of bulls on the market that are ready to push the price higher. On the other hand, we see that AUD/USD has approached the key resistance of 0.7400. So, it’s unlikely to break this strong level as it has failed to cross it so far. That’s why we may observe a pullback soon.


Now, let’s look at the daily chart to have a better view. If the price bounces off 0.7400 and falls, it will meet the support of 0.7260. The move below it will drive the pair to the low of November 12 at 0.7210. In the opposite scenario, if the price finally manages to move above 0.7400, it may rise further to the next round number of 0.7500. Follow further news and catch the market flow!




XBRUSD: Prepares to Correct Intraday Rally
XBRUSD: Prepares to Correct Intraday Rally

Bearish Scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.34, TP2: 78.94, TP3: 78.55, and 78.00 Bullish Scenario: Buys above 78.00 (wait for a retracement to the zone) with TP: 79.34 TP2: 80.00, and TP3: 81.00

Oil In The Geopolitical Lens: Soars And Dips Under The Influence Of Global Events
Oil In The Geopolitical Lens: Soars And Dips Under The Influence Of Global Events

Amid uncertainty driven by geopolitical events, oil prices surged to record highs. However, a correction in oil prices is observed with a gradual improvement in the situation in the Middle East and an increase in demand. The question facing investors is whether there are prerequisites for further price growth or if everything depends on the dynamics of the political landscape. In this article, we will explore the impact of recent events on the global oil market and the prospects for developing this crucial commodity sector.

Latest news

WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot
WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot

Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...

XAUUSD: Will Gold Continue to Rally?
XAUUSD: Will Gold Continue to Rally?

Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.


A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera