GBP: two factors

GBP: two factors

2020-07-22 • Updated

The GBP is pretty much in a roller coaster now.

From the downside, it has the hopes for the successful and nearing Brexit deal pushing it upwards. We have to note that it is more hopes than anything else. So far, the process is quite slow, and the sides are both pretty unsatisfied with where it goes. So whether there will be a deal on time is still a question. That’s why, although the hopes are there and keep supporting the GBP, this factor cannot be taken as a reliable upward driver – at least, until there is more concrete progress with Brexit.

From the upside, the GBP is under pressure due to quantitative easing measures which are still underway. That means, in the mid-term, there will be at least one firm factor pressing on the GBP and limiting its bullish advances.

With both factors combined together, we have a sporadic-looking tactical sideways movement of the GBP as in the chart below. Technically, it can go down to touch the key support of 1.2500 or descend lower to the channel border somewhere below 1.2450. Eventually, it is likely to go up again though, so decided where you go short-term (bearish) or long-term (bullish) with GBP/USD.

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