Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.
Gold: no motivation for an uptrend?
2022-08-30 • Updated
With the news strains and the necessity of new lockdowns in many states, the virus is going bad in Europe – again. In the US, however, it looks comparatively stable – enough to let market observers get swayed by the prospects of a recovery that’s rolling all around. The latest NFP release that turned out better than expectations added to the optimism and investors turned away from gold.
Moreover, high US Treasury yields have been hammering the gold price to the downside lately. On top of that, there are cryptocurrencies now, with Bitcoin expected to reach hundreds of thousands of dollars in value over the next few years – which seems a plausible alternative to gold.
Together, these and other factors added up to make a solid reason for gold to stay in the downtrend and make new local lows. Will it change in the foreseeable future? It may. But so far, fundamentals are rather on a sideways-bearish side. At least, until the next US-China or another global geopolitical conflict erupts.
An almost direct-line downward diagonal of the 200-MA indicates that gold has been going down for quite some time already. Since summer 2020, to be precise. That means, for the last nine months, it’s been sliding down just to interrupt the downtrend by occasional upward incursions slightly above 50-MA and 100-MA. Very possible, we are now observing the same scenario. In this case, what is being formed now is a part of a fresh high that’ll see a downward reversal soon.
At the same time, the support of 1680 that was reinstated as such instead of getting broken last week suggests that the sideways pattern of the last three weeks may extend. Probably, this scenario should be taken as primary until bulls push gold to cross the resistance of $1755 – or drag it below $1680.
Corrective Bearish Scenario: Sells below 38680 with TP1: 38560, TP2: 38500, TP3: 38432 Continuation Bullish Scenario: Buys above 38816 with TP: 39000
Bullish Scenario: Buy between 17515 and 17600 with TP1: 17681; TP2: 17720 intraday, and TP3: 17750 / 18000 in extension. Bearish Scenario in case of breaking the buying zone: Sell below 17500 with TP1: 17469; TP2: 17421, and TP3: 17358 in extension.
After creating record highs, Wall Street's main indexes opened on Wednesday and began to edge lower, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors. They're eagerly awaiting crucial inflation data that could impact the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. The upcoming release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is expected...
The month of February saw markets make several instinctive moves as well as create opportunities for proper leveraging of fundamental releases. Despite being a leap-year, there wasn’t any real impact on price delivery in the course of the month. As we await the opportunities that lie ahead in the month of March, here are a few thoughts to consider.
USD/CHF saw a rebound after declining for two days straight, climbing towards the important psychological level of 0.8800 during Wednesday's early Asian trading session. There's some pressure on the Swiss Franc (CHF) as traders await the Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations report scheduled for later today. Moreover, investors are keeping...