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Morgan Stanley: outperforming again?
2021-04-13 • Updated
April 16, 11:30 MT time: Morgan Stanley will report its Q1 earnings of 2021.
The technical layout shows that Morgan Stanley went far beyond after recovering the virus losses. It reached the all-time high of $86 recently and ceded some of the gains. Currently, it trades at around $80 per share. A better-than-thought earnings release would push the stock beyond the all-time high to form a new one. How probable is that?
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For Q1’2021, the EPS is expected to rise to $2 – a value significantly greater than the expected $1 for Q4’2020. One of the reasons why the expectation is set this high is that with the only exclusion for the first quarter of 2020, Morgan Stanley has been by far outperforming the forecasts. In Q2, the actual EPS was 76.3% better than the expectation, in Q3 – 31.4% better, and in Q4’2020 – 43.1%. Therefore, Morgan Stanly proved to consistently bring a very strong performance to the table of investors in the time as hard as 2020 was.
The data of Q1 should also be strong because that quarter was when the economic recovery really started, and that was officially recognized at the highest circles in the US. That should have brought bullish momentum both to the sales performance of Morgan Stanley in Q1, and to investors who keep this stock.
Finally, currently, we are in a period when investors’ funds leave the hi-tech breakthrough bay of the stock market and flow into traditional value stocks – one of which is Morgan Stanley. Therefore, it should fortify the generally positive outlook for this stock in the short-term and mid-term. For this reason, as long as the data to be provided in the Q1 Earnings Report is better than the market forecast, we are likely to see this stock eventually rise to $86 and beyond.
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Bearish Scenario: Selling below 22.65 with TP1: 22.34 (intraday) and TP2: 22.02 (swing). Bullish Scenario: Buying above 22.70 with TP1: 22.90.
Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.