Non-farm payrolls: the forecasts

Non-farm payrolls: the forecasts

2020-07-02 • Updated

The first Thursday of the month is going to be an unusual one, as the United States releases Non-farm payrolls at 15:30 MT time. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics moved the date of the monthly update on employment due to holidays in the United States.

Previous results

Last month, US job data surprised traders. While analysts expected a fall in NFP by 7 750K, the actual level increased by 2 509K. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 13.3% (vs. the forecast of 19.4%). The only negative data was the average hourly earnings. The change in the price businesses pay for labor slid by 1% despite the forecast of a rise by 1%.

Forecasts

Analytical companies anticipate the US labor market to continue stabilizing. Let’s see the forecasts by some of the famous ones.

According to Goldman Sachs, the headline NFP increased by 4 250K in June with the unemployment level at 12.7%.

Merrill Lynch is anticipating less encouraging, but still promising results with the NFP increasing by 2 800K and the unemployment rate at 12.5%.

TD set its NFP estimates at +4 000K. The company notes, that the fundamental background is different this time compared to May’s one, as the cases of COVID-19 are surging.

Finally, Scotia predicts a rise of NFP by 4 000K.  At the same time, it says that due to the fundamental changes and volatility, the actual figures may be lower but still in the positive territory.

Key levels for EUR/USD

At the moment, EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1280 level, close to the upper border of the descending channel. Positive NFP will pull the pair down towards 1.1230 (23.6 Fibo level).  On the other hand, if the official data disappoints, EUR/USD will break 1.1280 and target the next resistance at 1.1330.

EURUSDDaily.png

Key levels for USD/JPY

The volatility of the pair has been very low since the start of the day. At the moment, USD/JPY is well-supported by 107.4 (50-day SMA). A lower-than-expected outcome of NFP will pull the pair below this level to the next support at 106.9. A Strong NFP will encourage bulls to push the pair to the 107.9 level (100-day SMA).

USDJPYDaily.png

LOG IN

Similar

Oil In The Geopolitical Lens: Soars And Dips Under The Influence Of Global Events
Oil In The Geopolitical Lens: Soars And Dips Under The Influence Of Global Events

Amid uncertainty driven by geopolitical events, oil prices surged to record highs. However, a correction in oil prices is observed with a gradual improvement in the situation in the Middle East and an increase in demand. The question facing investors is whether there are prerequisites for further price growth or if everything depends on the dynamics of the political landscape. In this article, we will explore the impact of recent events on the global oil market and the prospects for developing this crucial commodity sector.

How Will China’s Regulation Affect Oil?
How Will China’s Regulation Affect Oil?

China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.

Latest news

What To Trade In March
What To Trade In March

The month of February saw markets make several instinctive moves as well as create opportunities for proper leveraging of fundamental releases. Despite being a leap-year, there wasn’t any real impact on price delivery in the course of the month. As we await the opportunities that lie ahead in the month of March, here are a few thoughts to consider.

CHF: Key Zone Could Yield Strong Reactions
CHF: Key Zone Could Yield Strong Reactions

USD/CHF saw a rebound after declining for two days straight, climbing towards the important psychological level of 0.8800 during Wednesday's early Asian trading session. There's some pressure on the Swiss Franc (CHF) as traders await the Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations report scheduled for later today. Moreover, investors are keeping...

USD Expected To Recover Some Strength
USD Expected To Recover Some Strength

In the early hours of Tuesday, the US Dollar faces challenges in maintaining its strength against major currencies, with the US Dollar Index struggling to surpass the 104.00 mark. Investors are eagerly anticipating the release of key economic data, including January Durable Goods Orders and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for February. Additionally, the economic calendar includes reports...

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera