Nonfarm payrolls forecasts from banks

Nonfarm payrolls forecasts from banks

2023-11-24 • Updated

Today is the first Friday of the month and It means that we will receive the usual payrolls release from the US at 3:30 pm MT time. It comes at crunch time for Fed officials as they haven’t yet decided whether to raise rates three times this year or to introduce other tightening measures.

The US NFP is expected to be around 174K. This number is believed to be a strong consistent job gain which can satisfy Fed’s policymakers and allow them to hike two additional times this year. If we get significantly lower figures on the NFP and a bit higher unemployment rate, we will probably have to sell the greenback against its major peers as a speculation for Feds not to recourse to additional hikes in the near-term. An upbeat print (higher than 200K, for instance) and lower jobless rate could lead to the USD strengthening.

If we get a controversial report, we suggest you adopting a wait-and-see approach. You should wait for some minutes after the release to get a clearer view.

Forecasts from banks

Danske Bank

DB analysts expect additional job gains from the report. The US labor market was in a quite good shape in the last two consecutive months. They estimate a total of 160K new jobs were created in previous month, but underline that risks are skewed to the upside, as Wednesday’s ADP report was ahead of market expectations.

The average hourly earnings are to increase 0.2% (annual increase will reach 2.7%).

The jobless rate will probably stay unchanged from the previous update at 4.7%.


ANZ strategists will have a closer look at the pace of wage growth. According to them, it is a key estimate watched by the Fed’s officials before they decide on the pace of rate hikes. Its forecasts for NFP are consistent with those that have been mutually agreed by other market analysts (around 180K).

There are some other non-verbal forecasts from major banks:


Source: eFXplus 


WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot
WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot

Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...

XBRUSD: Prepares to Correct Intraday Rally
XBRUSD: Prepares to Correct Intraday Rally

Bearish Scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.34, TP2: 78.94, TP3: 78.55, and 78.00 Bullish Scenario: Buys above 78.00 (wait for a retracement to the zone) with TP: 79.34 TP2: 80.00, and TP3: 81.00

Latest news

XAUUSD: Bears Prepare To Takeover
XAUUSD: Bears Prepare To Takeover

On Friday, the gold price (XAUUSD) retreated from a recent two-week high, facing selling pressure. This decline was driven by hawkish minutes from the FOMC meeting, indicating the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates. Elevated US Treasury bond yields, supported by a "higher-for-longer" narrative, further weakened demand for gold...

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.


A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera