OIL: a detailed short-term outlook

OIL: a detailed short-term outlook

2020-06-25 • Updated

On Wednesday, when the WTI oil price stopped at $40 we advised that it would go further down to the area of $37.5. Eventually, it happened exactly as foreseen – the price is currently at $37.5 although we did not expect it to go down as fast as it did. Now, it makes sense to a closer technical look to it to properly prepare for possible outcomes.

In the midterm, we see that the pace of recovery that WTI was at during May got slower. Since the beginning of June, the price is barely climbing upwards – that is visible with the Moving Averages as well. Trading way above the 50-MA in May, oil more frequently goes downwards to the area where 50-MA and 100-MA overlap – currently at 38.0. It doesn’t suggest a fundamental trend change, though, – just the fact that it will definitely take longer to get from $40 to $50 than what it took to get from $30 to $40.

1.png

In the short term, we see that the recently left pear above $40 makes a tip of a pyramid-like formation based somewhere at $36. Why exactly $36? On June 19 and 22, the price dropped to this level. Although that was really short-term and did stop it from going upwards eventually, plunges like this don’t happen for no reason. Downside definitely has heavy gravity, and WTI price will be under its influence at least until the second-wave virus fears are gone. Therefore, we are expecting the red-marked area to be an expected zone of movement for the oil price in the short-term – that is, at and below $38.

2.png

                                                                                                    LOG IN

Similar

Nasdaq 100 (US100): Toward 17750
Nasdaq 100 (US100): Toward 17750

Bullish Scenario: Buy between 17515 and 17600 with TP1: 17681; TP2: 17720 intraday, and TP3: 17750 / 18000 in extension. Bearish Scenario in case of breaking the buying zone: Sell below 17500 with TP1: 17469; TP2: 17421, and TP3: 17358 in extension.

Latest news

WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot
WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot

Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...

XAUUSD: Will Gold Continue to Rally?
XAUUSD: Will Gold Continue to Rally?

Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera