USD Look Bearish Ahead Of The Retail Sales Release

USD Look Bearish Ahead Of The Retail Sales Release

2023-08-15 • Updated

Despite notable fluctuations, the USD is close to its position at the beginning of 2023. HSBC economists are examining the US Dollar's future prospects based on its performance so far. Recent data indicates that a soft landing is the most probable outcome for the US and the global economy. This scenario suggests a shift towards a "risk-on" sentiment, potentially leading to a weaker USD by the end of 2023 and the early part of 2024, which aligns with their primary prediction. However, if the US experiences a challenging economic decline or outperforms other G10 economies, the USD could strengthen, although this would be quite improbable according to the data.

US Dollar - D1 Timeframe

UsDollarDaily-1508a.png

The US Dollar has had quite an interesting few weeks, pushing higher despite an overall downtrend. As seen on the chart, the bullish move has reached a supply zone around the 88% of the Fibonacci retracement zone. Another notable factor here is the confluence of trendlines. See the complete list of confluences below:

  • The trendline resistance;
  • Bearish moving average array;
  • Resistance from the 200-period moving average; 
  • The 88% of the Fibonacci retracement level.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bearish

Target: 100.175

Invalidation: 103.580

EURUSD - D1 Timeframe

 EURUSDDaily-1508.png

EURUSD has reached a demand zone that overlaps with trendline support and could be well considered within the area of the 50 and 100-period moving averages. The demand zone can also be considered to have occurred within the range of the 88% of the Fibonacci retracement zone. These confluences point towards the likelihood of a bullish impulse.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target: 1.11655

Invalidation: 1.08350

GBPUSD - D1 Timeframe

 GBPUSDDaily-1508.png

GBPUSD is in a demand zone and reacted initially to the zone, as evident from the wick of the previous daily candle. There is also trendline support cutting across the demand zone, and the 100-day moving average provides additional confluence to the bullish sentiment. The bullish array of the moving averages provides even more reason for the price to commence a bullish run from the highlighted demand area.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target: 1.28760

Invalidation: 1.25872

CONCLUSION

The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.

TRY TRADING NOW

You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.

Similar

USD: CPI Carries The Dollar to Pivots
USD: CPI Carries The Dollar to Pivots

The higher-than-expected inflation data for January has reignited concerns about rising prices and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. While investors had anticipated rate cuts in the near term, the hot inflation print may delay such actions. As the Fed navigates the delicate balance between containing inflation and...

The January US CPI and Its Impact on EURUSD
The January US CPI and Its Impact on EURUSD

Today, Tuesday, February 13th, at 8:30 am New York time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases US inflation data related to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This data, considered high-impact, could generate significant changes in the perception of...

USD: Critical Levels To Watch Ahead of CPI
USD: Critical Levels To Watch Ahead of CPI

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a consolidation phase since early February, displaying minor signs of weakening last week. Despite this, the USD continues to find support around the 104.00 mark on dips, indicating a general resilience. Analysis suggests that the USD may currently be overvalued in the short term when considering various factors

Latest news

AUD: Trade Ideas
AUD: Trade Ideas

Last Tuesday, the Australian dollar experienced its steepest drop of the year, falling by 1.18%, following higher-than-expected US inflation figures, which boosted the US dollar. However, the Aussie has since rebounded and is now trading at a two-week high against the US dollar. Investors are...

NZD: The Week Ahead
NZD: The Week Ahead

Commerzbank's analysis suggests a brighter outlook for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the coming months despite recent downward pressure. Factors like broader U.S. Dollar strength and domestic issues have kept the NZD below last year's highs. However, robust labor markets in both New Zealand and Australia and an expected...

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera