As the year winds down and the festive spirit takes hold, the stock market often presents a curious yet anticipated phenomenon known as the Santa Rally. Within this whirlwind of festive trading, let’s look at how two titans of the tech world, Amazon and Apple, might fare during this unique season.
These Reports Will Determine The Fate of The US Tech Sector
2023-07-31 • Updated
AMD will report its Q2 results on August 1 after market close.AMD's second-quarter top-line growth is expected to be negatively impacted by lower revenues in the client segment due to a weak PC market, slow data center, and wireless infrastructure trends. Global PC shipments in Q2 2023 declined by 16.6% year over year, affecting client revenues estimated to have declined by 62.4%. Gaming revenues also decreased by 6.6%.
Data center revenues are expected to suffer from weak demand caused by challenging macroeconomic conditions, resulting in an estimated decline of 8% year over year to $1.37 billion. However, embedded revenues are projected to grow by 25% yearly to $1.57 billion.
On the positive side, AMD's results are anticipated to benefit from an expanding partner base and strong demand for the Pensando DPU. The company's expanded product portfolio, including the first ASIC-based Alveo data center media accelerator, is also expected to boost top-line growth.
During the second quarter, AMD made several key announcements, introducing new Ryzen and Athlon processors and Radeon graphics cards built on advanced architectures. The company also launched new Ryzen PRO mobile processors for premium Windows 11 business laptops and mobile workstations. Additionally, AMD unveiled new workload-optimized processors with AMD 3D V-Cache technology and the Versal Premium VP1902 adaptive SoC.
Furthermore, AMD strengthened its partnerships with Hewlett Packard and Amazon Web Services, providing support for storage solutions and previewing next-generation instances based on 4th Gen AMD EPYC processors.
Estimated EPS: $1.19
Estimated Revenue: 81.73B
AMD is consolidating between 50.0 and 61.8 Fibonacci levels.
- If the report is worse than expected, the price will decline to the 95.00 - 100.00 support range near the global support trendline.
- Otherwise, the stock will break the local resistance trendline and move to 122.00 and 140.00, 61.8, and 78.6 Fibonacci levels, respectively.
Amazon is set to report its Q2 results on August 3 after market close. Investors closely watch its revenue performance, segment financials, other income, margin profile, and management guidance for the next quarter. Analysts' expectations are mixed. The company's cloud division, AWS, is expected to see a 3% sequential growth in revenue. The North American segment is anticipated to report a 1% sequential sales increase, while the International segment may face an 8% revenue decline due to economic challenges in certain markets.
Investors should also monitor Amazon's "other income," which includes its strategic investment in Rivian Automotive. Rivian's stock price has appreciated, and it is expected to contribute $180 million to Amazon's other income in Q2.
After the recent stock price rally, Amazon's valuation is relatively overpriced. Thus, negative news during the earnings report could trigger a significant drop in the stock.
Estimated EPS: 0.3537
Estimated Revenue: 131.46B
Amazon stock has recently bounced off the 50.0 Fibonacci level.
- If the actual results strongly overperform expectations, the stock can move to 147.00.
- Otherwise, a decline to 114.00 and 107.00 is expected.
Apple is set to release its Q2 results on August 3 after market close, including a call with analysts hosted by CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri. While the company has not provided specific guidance, they expect revenue to be similar to the previous quarter if the macroeconomic outlook remains stable. Wall Street analysts predict Apple's revenue for this quarter to be around $82 billion, with earnings per share estimated at $1.19.
Expectations for Q2 include continued year-on-year improvements, with a 2% increase in revenue compared to Q1 2023. Products like the M2 and M2 Pro Mac mini upgraded MacBook Pro models and the second-generation HomePod are expected to contribute to the results. Moreover, services are seen as an underappreciated asset with anticipated growth in the coming quarters.
Some analysts, like Wedbush, believe Apple could see strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro in China, and introducing the iPhone 15 may lead to a smoother transition between generations. Morgan Stanley expects Apple's fourth quarter to perform even better, potentially exceeding consensus estimates by 5-10% with year-on-year revenue growth driven by iPhone and Services. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank also hold positive outlooks on Apple's performance.
Estimated EPS: $1.19
Estimated Revenue: 81.73B
Apple stock is moving toward the 161.8 Fibonacci level at 205.00. It is noticeable that the price is overbought, so FBS analysts expect a decline in the near term.
- If the report is better than expected, the stock may move to 205.00, providing a great entry point for a sell trade.
- However, if the report underperforms expectations, a drop to the 175.00 - 180.00 support range will happen.
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