Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.
USD: Critical Levels To Watch Ahead of CPI
2024-02-12 • Updated
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a consolidation phase since early February, displaying minor signs of weakening last week. Despite this, the USD continues to find support around the 104.00 mark on dips, indicating a general resilience. Analysis suggests that the USD may currently be overvalued in the short term when considering various factors such as spreads. Moreover, US yields have remained relatively stagnant, limiting the potential for the USD to strengthen without significant economic data improvements. Market sentiment is awaiting the release of the US January CPI report, which is expected to influence the USD's short-term trajectory. Depending on whether inflation is slower or sticks close to expectations, the USD's direction could vary, potentially impacting market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve actions. In essence, while the USD remains somewhat stable, its near-term movement hinges on upcoming economic data releases.
EURUSD - H1 Timeframe
On the 1-hour timeframe, EURUSD is currently being supported by the trendline, 100-period moving average,as well as the demand zone - all of which indicate the possibility of a bullish continuation from the current zone.
GBPUSD - H1 Timeframe
In a similar manner to what we already analyzed on the EURUSD chart, the hourly timeframe chart of GBPUSD is also trading within the demand zone at the moment with crucial support from the trendline, 100-period moving average, and the demand zone as well.
AUDUSD - H1 Timeframe
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Bearish Scenario: Selling below 22.65 with TP1: 22.34 (intraday) and TP2: 22.02 (swing). Bullish Scenario: Buying above 22.70 with TP1: 22.90.
Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.