USD: Initial Claims Data Incoming

USD: Initial Claims Data Incoming

2023-12-20 • Updated

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a substantial labor force transformation in the U.S., marked by 'The Great Reshuffle.' Over 50 million workers resigned in 2022, continuing the trend from 2021, but by August 2023, resignations tapered to 30.5 million. This reshuffling trend indicates a quest for better work-life balance, higher compensation, and a robust company culture. November's unemployment rate slightly dropped to 3.7%, with job gains surpassing expectations at 199,000, led by health care, government, and manufacturing sectors recovering from the United Auto Workers strike. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is closely monitoring industry-specific trends, providing valuable insights for businesses and policymakers. Weekly jobless claims remained steady, with the insured unemployment rate at 1.3%. Notable state variations include New Jersey and California which have the highest insured unemployment rates. As the labor market adapts, businesses and policymakers are keenly observing these indicators to navigate changing workforce dynamics and economic conditions.

GBPUSD - H4 Timeframe


GBPUSD as seen from the attached chart above has been rejected off the rally-base-drop supply zone and seems to be aiming for the confluence region of the demand zone, moving average, and trendline support. In this situation, my sentiment remains bearish, until a proper reaction is observed from the confluence region as stated.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bearish

Target: 1.25529

Invalidation: 1.27081

EURUSD - H4 Timeframe


EURUSD, after bouncing off the supply zone, is at the moment facing another bout of rejection from the trendline resistance. The current state of the price action is a consolidation between the two trendlines. A cautionary approach to this trade idea would be to wait for a clear break below the trendline support, whilst an aggressive approach would be to use the recent high as the stop-loss price.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bearish

Target: 1.09867

Invalidation: 1.09108

USDCHF - H4 Timeframe


As for USDCHF, price seems to be on the verge of a clean rejection from the demand zone as projected based on the pin-bar candlestick formation. I’m personally not exceedingly thrilled about this move though, since it does not have as many confluences as I’d prefer to be able to work with. In the meantime, however, I’ll keep my fingers crossed, with a tentative bullish sentiment.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target: 0.86671

Invalidation: 0.85785


The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.


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