Commerzbank's analysis suggests a brighter outlook for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the coming months despite recent downward pressure. Factors like broader U.S. Dollar strength and domestic issues have kept the NZD below last year's highs. However, robust labor markets in both New Zealand and Australia and an expected...
What to trade on May 16-20?
2022-12-15 • Updated
Last week brought a selloff in markets. Stocks, crypto, gold, and euro – assets were under heavy pressure amid the upcoming recession in the US. Some assets reached the most crucial support levels and are likely to reverse in a short term. Others weren't so lucky and are now in danger. Be ahead of trends and make the most out of this week!
On May 5, the Bank of England raised the interest rate to 1%. It's the fourth consecutive rate hike, and BoE will probably continue the monetary tightening policy. Moreover, BoE will release its annual CPI reading on Wednesday and retail sales data on Friday. As the releases come out, the GBPUSD pair is closer to the two-year low of 1.2000. The chance for a reversal from the 1.2000-1.2100 support area is high, so look closely for the reversal patterns on daily and H4 charts. Even though the pound is weak amid the tricky situation with Russia's oil & gas supplies, the currency may feel better. The main reason for a possible GBP boost is slowing down inflation. On the other hand, if the CPI is bigger than expected, the GBP will continue falling because it will mean rate hikes don't help.
Oil & Gold
Oil has been moving sideways for more than two months, but the breakout is near. There are many bullish factors for the price, including a possible embargo on Russian export. Another notable thing is OPEC which can't increase oil output at a faster pace. We expect oil to realize a bullish scenario at the end of consolidation and reach $150 per barrel.
Gold is in a shaky situation. The metal broke through the support trendline at $1840 and approached $1800. It's the barrier between the bullish and bearish outlook for the following weeks, if not months. Further strengthening of the USD may bring happiness for all XAUUSD bears as the metal may fall significantly.
S&P500 (US500) index had closed last week below the 100-weekly moving average. It's the first time for the US500 since March 2020, and generally, it's the start of a bearish market for the stocks. S&P500 may reach 3500, the 200-weekly moving average, before trying to revive the uptrend. However, the index will have to surpass the 3800 support line, which is the bearish channel's lower border.
The higher-than-expected inflation data for January has reignited concerns about rising prices and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. While investors had anticipated rate cuts in the near term, the hot inflation print may delay such actions. As the Fed navigates the delicate balance between containing inflation and...
Today, Tuesday, February 13th, at 8:30 am New York time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases US inflation data related to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This data, considered high-impact, could generate significant changes in the perception of...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.
Last Tuesday, the Australian dollar experienced its steepest drop of the year, falling by 1.18%, following higher-than-expected US inflation figures, which boosted the US dollar. However, the Aussie has since rebounded and is now trading at a two-week high against the US dollar. Investors are...