Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.
WTI oil: up at $62 while OPEC+ decides
2022-12-20 • Updated
Today, OPEC+ is expected to announce how much exactly oil they will supply to the oil market in the coming months. More specifically, what the supply increase will be. The Saudi approach favors a cautious strategy with an expected 500,000bdp increase - that stands against the Russian view on the matter that supposes 1,500,000bpd should be added to the daily supply. That'll be known this Thursday evening, most probably.
In the meantime, a missile landed at the Saudi Aramco site near Jeddah. That was one of the two incidents claimed by Yemen's Houthis (fighting against the UN-recognised government in Yemen) who allegedly attacked a Saudi airbase as well. That might have been the main factor that made the oil price rise to $62 recently. Another factor was the fall of the US oil inventories that spurred the price to the upside.
Now, while Saudi Arabia achieved to produce an image of a very flexible and cautious oil market player, they have a very strong negotiating leverage currently - that 1mln bpd that they voluntarily cut from their production plan to support the price. That's just to say, be prepared to see anything from a modest increase lower than the market expectation to the highest reasonable number. At the end of the day, it's OPEC - things are rarely straightforward there.
Corrective Bearish Scenario: Sells below 38680 with TP1: 38560, TP2: 38500, TP3: 38432 Continuation Bullish Scenario: Buys above 38816 with TP: 39000
Bullish Scenario: Buy between 17515 and 17600 with TP1: 17681; TP2: 17720 intraday, and TP3: 17750 / 18000 in extension. Bearish Scenario in case of breaking the buying zone: Sell below 17500 with TP1: 17469; TP2: 17421, and TP3: 17358 in extension.
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