WTI: the moment of truth

WTI: the moment of truth

2020-05-15 • Updated

Fundamental

The American crude inventories are shrinking faster than expected. That reflects the global situation around oil: the glut is shrinking, the demand is coming back. That’s good news overall, and the oil price is appreciating that. However, there is certain fundamental equilibrium at the moment: from purely the oil industry standpoint, things are improving with the demand catching up with the supply; from the geopolitical perspective, the US-China relations are a bit tensed and may be preventing the price from rising.    

Technical

Now, from a technical perspective, there is an obvious consolidation at the resistance level of $26.50. Very likely, as soon as the fundamental equilibrium is broken, that resistance will also be left: either upwards, or downward, depending on where the news will tilt the table. The main question is, how the absence of news and fundamental silence should be interpreted? In the mid-term, if nothing comes from the US-china front, and neither from the oil sector, it should push the price because the glut is diminishing “naturally” anyway, while any impediment for the market correction would need to come from the political side in a form of a conscious state effort. Hence, the absence of the latter will automatically give way for the price to rise.  

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