US dollar: forecast for November 13-17

Last week the US dollar index (DXY) declined from 95.00 to 94.30. Investors were disappointed that an important US tax bill might be delayed until 2019 instead of being implemented in 2018. The problem is that the House of Representatives and the Senate have different ideas of what this legislation should look like. Treasury yields declined on the news and so did the USD.

In the coming days, there will be more political and economic news. We are looking forward to new headlines about the tax reform. The USD needs progress here in order to retain support. America will also release PPI on Tuesday, CPI and retail sales and Empire State manufacturing index on Wednesday, unemployment claims, import prices and industrial production on Thursday and building permits and housing starts on Friday. In addition, we’ll hear from the US central bank a lot: FOMC member Harker and the Fed Chair Yellen speak on Monday, Evans on Wednesday and Kaplan and Brainard on Thursday. Insights about the Fed’s plans will drive the greenback as well.

Given all this, the odds are that the USD will have a better week than the last time. The overall outlook for DXY will remain bullish as long as it’s trading above support at 94.00. Resistance lies at 95.00. Advance above this level will open the way up to 96.00.


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