Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.
XAU/USD: what’s the pattern?
2022-12-16 • Updated
SELL 1,404; TP 1,390; SL 1,408
BUY 1,426; TP 1,435; SL 1,423
XAU/USD soared in June but didn’t manage to get above 1,440. During the past three weeks, the price of gold consolidated between that level o the upside and 1,380 on the downside. Although the asset looked overbought, the weakness of the USD kept the price near the highs, so short positions turned out to be premature. Now, however, the price action looks very much like the “diamond” pattern that tends to precede a reversal. Still, to trade on it we would need a confirmation: a decline at least below 1,404. The initial targets will be at 1,390 and 1,371. This scenario looks like the path of least resistance technically.
However, there’s a substantial fundamental chance that the policy of the Fed will keep the USD under pressure. In this case, XAU/USD could strengthen. The price would be able to at least retest the 1,435 area if it rises above 1,425.
Gold prices have experienced four consecutive weeks of decline, with a 3.6% drop in the current month, marking the worst performance since February. Despite this decline, retail traders are showing increased bullish sentiment toward gold. This suggests that some investors see the lower prices as an attractive buying opportunity.
Here's the latest news from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While speaking at a conference in Portugal, Powell expressed optimism about the US economy and decreased the possibility of a recession, stating that the economy has shown resilience and is still growing, albeit at a modest pace. He acknowledged the possibility of a recession but emphasized that it is not the most likely scenario.
On Friday, the gold price (XAUUSD) retreated from a recent two-week high, facing selling pressure. This decline was driven by hawkish minutes from the FOMC meeting, indicating the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates. Elevated US Treasury bond yields, supported by a "higher-for-longer" narrative, further weakened demand for gold...
Bearish Scenario: Selling below 22.65 with TP1: 22.34 (intraday) and TP2: 22.02 (swing). Bullish Scenario: Buying above 22.70 with TP1: 22.90.
Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.